How are utilities using probabilistic planning to tackle the rising complexity and uncertainty in grid operations due to distributed energy resources and fluctuating demand?

Nov 18, 2024 | Article

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We’ve partnered with utilities to tackle this question, and here are the insights we’ve gathered. 

  • Model and simulate a variety of possible future scenarios, including demand growth with emerging technologies like heat pumps and Electric Vehicles, Distributed Energy Resource (DER) adoption, and system contingencies. 
  • Identify potential constraints and capacity issues under different conditions. 
  • Optimize the placement of sensors and the operation of advanced applications like Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) to enhance grid visibility. 
  • Evaluate the effectiveness of non-wired alternatives as a means to address or defer capital infrastructure investment to mitigate system constraints. 
  • Consider transitioning from a typical deterministic approach for hosting capacity and interconnection analysis to a flexible interconnection with DER programmatic controls put in place to mitigate the identified constraints. 

Key Uses of Probabilistic Planning: 

1. Handling Dynamic Demand and Distributed Energy Resources (DERs): 

As more customers adopt technologies like solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicles (EVs), and battery storage, the demand and generation on the distribution network become more dynamic. Probabilistic planning helps utilities assess how these resources may impact the grid by analyzing a wide range of potential future scenarios. This includes looking at both additional demand (e.g., from EVs) and distributed generation (e.g., from solar PV) under different conditions. Scenarios can also include DER evaluation for customer programs such as dispatchable battery storage, EV charging, and changing smart inverter (IEEE 1547-2018) configuration settings. 

2. Demand and Solar PV Generation Forecasting: 

Statistical based probabilistic planning using Monte Carlo simulations for: 

  • Load/Demand Curve Analysis: Historical kW data is used to calculate statistical measures such as the standard deviation and confidence intervals. These are then applied to project future demand scenarios, considering factors like the adoption of EVs or heat pumps, providing a range of possible planning load forecast scenarios and bandwidth specification for the forecast confidence (e.g., 90% confidence interval range). 
  • Solar PV Output Analysis: Similarly, probabilistic simulations are run for different levels of solar PV capacity to forecast how solar generation will impact the grid at different times and under different weather or adoption conditions. By using a range of potential values rather than fixed inputs, utilities can plan for uncertainty and avoid under- or over-building infrastructure.  

3. DER Adoption Forecasting: 

Probabilistic analysis is used to predict where DERs are more likely to be adopted across the grid. DER adoption by customers has historically “clustered” in certain areas with demographic considerations. Analyzing these past trends can help proactively identify areas of the distribution grid that are more likely to experience DER proliferation. For example, utilities can use probabilistic models to assess the likelihood that customers in specific locations will install solar panels or adopt EVs. This is based on factors like rooftop area, economic indicators, and fleet electrification trends. By understanding the potential for DER adoption across different parts of the grid, utilities can better plan for future capacity needs and grid upgrades.  

4. Assessing Grid Hosting Capacity: 

Probabilistic planning is used to determine how much additional DER capacity the grid can host without causing power quality issues or exceeding the grid’s design limits. This advanced approach goes beyond traditional deterministic methods by analyzing a wide range of possible conditions, including fluctuations in DER output, load profiles, and network configurations. By considering these variables probabilistically, utilities can gain a realistic and comprehensive view of hosting capacity under diverse scenarios. This analysis evaluates the likelihood of issues such as voltage deviations, thermal overloads, and protection coordination challenges, accounting for factors like varying DER penetration levels and 8,760-hour analysis providing profiles for each hour of a given year. With probability-based outcomes, utilities are better positioned to understand potential risks and to prioritize grid upgrades or operational strategies accordingly. This comprehensive assessment equips utilities with valuable insights to enhance circuit performance while informing potential DER applicants about expected disconnection hours should they surpass current hosting limits. This approach enables utilities to optimize grid reliability and resilience in the face of increasing DER integration. 

5. Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE): 

DSSE is an application associated with Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS) for distribution operations as well as distribution planning that provides distribution system situational awareness and DER visibility. It relies on probabilistic methods to determine the location, quantity, and type of telemetry points in the distribution systems.. Probabilistic planning helps ensure DSSE can accurately estimate system conditions under various operating states and contingencies, such as measurement errors or changes in generation/demand. This situational awareness allows utilities to optimize grid operations and prevent overloads or voltage violations without building new infrastructure. 

6. Non-Wired Alternatives: 

Probabilistic planning also supports the use of non-wired alternatives (NWAs), such as energy storage or demand response, to mitigate peak demand. By forecasting demand and generation under different probabilistic scenarios, utilities can determine when NWAs could be used to defer or avoid traditional infrastructure investments. 

7. Flexible Interconnection:

Reassess the approach for hosting capacity and interconnection analysis from deterministic rejection or infrastructure upgrade being triggered for an interconnection request when a constraint is exceeded. With a flexible interconnection approach, DER programmatic controls can be put in place to mitigate the identified constraints (e.g., non-export times of day during specific months or participation in dispatchable DER programs). 

Let’s shape the future of energy together. Contact EnerNex at info@enernex.com and solve energy challenges with experts by your side!


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Contact our Authors

Jeremy Laundergan

jlaundergan@enernex.com
(865) 770-4866

 

Muhammad Humayun

mhumayun@enernex.com
(865) 770-4870

 

Smart Metering (SM) and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)

Smart Metering and AMI is a transformational process addressing multiple business and technical needs of the utility enterprise. This is more than just smart meters and communications networks; it includes all of the back end applications that can leverage the meter assets, such as outage notification, demand response, call center optimization, disputed billing process handling, pre-payment opportunities, and service connection management methods and procedures, to name a few.

Implementing SM and AMI faces the same business, engineering, and operational challenges as any other across-the-utility information technology endeavors – most notably risk associated with embracing proprietary technology, missing functionality and early obsolescence. Effective SM and AMI development, implementation, and operation relies on a marriage of electric power engineering with information technology expertise: a key component of EnerNex’s expertise and experience.

EnerNex provides an array of engineering and consulting services geared towards intelligent and effective implementation of SM and AMI. This covers all phases of project development, starting with capturing system requirements where our experts leverage a “Use Case” centric view of activities needed to be accomplished and their interaction with systems and other users. Subsequent project steps typically examine other critical areas, such as: modeling of business cases, building inter-department consensus, assembling and assessing system functional requirements and non-functional requirements, developing a system design, hardware and software specifications and standards, complete procurement services including RFI and RFQ process support, supplier rating system, response evaluation methodology, deployment management, and training of office and field personnel.

Demand Response (DR)

Demand response can be as simple as load interruption directed by the energy supplier in response to severe demand requirements, to complex customer defined load management in response to price signals. DR is one of the components of a “Non-Wires Alternative” that many utilities are effectively using to avoid expensive distribution fortification or upgrade.

 

Often the success and/or failure of demand response programs can be linked to program implementation challenges such as rate/tariff design rate structures communication (e.g. price signals) or ineffective incentives used by utilities to encourage customers to accept operational change. The issues of program design, rate structure and customer impact have a tremendous influence on the success or failure of load management initiatives. Demand response has traditionally been used as a tool of the energy industry to ensure system stability. However, the introduction of microelectronics, communications, home automation and the Internet of Things (IoT) has led to the development of cost effective solutions that have the capability to allow the consumer to take control of managing their energy load and ultimately, the price they pay for energy.

EnerNex has the experience and skills to turn your DR program into a successful operational asset and customer engagement process that can deliver value to all parties.

Energy Assurance Planning

Natural and man-made disasters cause an estimated $57B in average annual costs for all parties; large single events have resulted in losses of $100B or more. Events, such as the World Trade Center disaster, Hurricane Katrina, and most recently Hurricane Helene, have demonstrated an acute need to revisit, revise and implement an effective energy assurance plan. Energy assurance plans assess the functionality and interdependencies of buildings and infrastructure systems and the role they play in sustaining service and rapidly restoring critical services to a community following a hazard event.

 

EnerNex assists our clients in developing comprehensive energy assurance plans that mitigate and minimize the impact of energy disruptions. Our experts assess critical infrastructure risks and evaluate appropriate mitigation strategies and can help in developing an effective business continuity/disaster recovery (BC/DR) plan for utilities and your customers.

Microgrid Development

As the electric grid becomes more distributed and interactive, microgrids are playing an increasingly important role in our energy future. Decision makers at military bases, corporate and institutional campuses, residential communities and critical facilities across the world are exploring and implementing microgrids to meet economic, resiliency and environmental goals. Utility-grade microgrids are being deployed to meet transmission constraints, reliability requirements and safe-havens in the event of a significant storm event.

Microgrid_development Graphic steps to support grid modernization

Bringing together a portfolio of distributed energy resources into a controllable, islandable microgrid comes with its own set of challenges. The key to solving these challenges is in architecting a system to support information exchanges between components across well-defined points of interoperability (interfaces) in a technology independent manner. This interoperability ensures that the system is resilient to technology change. Modern systems engineering techniques must be employed to ensure that individual sub‐systems are clearly identified, their functions enumerated, their data requirements known, and the points of interoperability clearly specified, along with the commensurate monitoring, command and control that is needed to ensure grid stability. With such architecture, we can apply best of breed technology available today to support those information exchanges at interface boundaries but be free to upgrade / change the implementation technology later without causing a ripple effect throughout the system.

Enterprise Architecture

Enterprise Architecture focuses on aligning an organization’s business strategies with its anticipated, desired and planned technology enhancements. Enterprise Architecture provides a framework to cost-effectively transition from a current “as-is” technology to future enterprise-wide technological solutions. An effective Enterprise Architecture program aligns business investments with long-term business strategies while minimizing risk and providing superior technological solutions. EnerNex’s key asset is its highly skilled and experienced staff who are closely connected to both the smart grid and EA standards and practices. We provide clients with the insight necessary to operate a fully functioning smart grid, which is flexible, scalable, and vendor independent.

Grid Modernization Roadmap

Utility companies across the globe are continually modernizing their grid. Each company often has different rationales, objectives and priorities. Frequently, smart grid plans are developed for individual, incremental initiatives, rather than as a part of a whole, intelligent and interoperable infrastructure. Planning may be developed around technology choices rather than business and technical requirements. The result of incremental and flawed planning leads to increased cost and risk, lost opportunities, disconnected expectations and dead ends.

 

EnerNex’s approach to grid modernization roadmap development follows a proven, industry-standard approach to grid modernization planning by collaboratively working with the utility to develop a set of prioritized and time-phased grid modernization initiatives unique to its business strategy and objectives. The roadmap developed is holistic, requirements-based, business value driven and actionable. It often builds on and leverages existing applications and infrastructure, and incorporates industry standards to ensure interoperability, flexibility and reduced cost and risk.

Utility Communications

Utility communication and control systems are increasingly interconnected to each other and to public networks and as a result, they are becoming increasingly more susceptible to disruptions and cyber attacks. EnerNex has experience with the various issues relating to development, implementation and optimization including feasibility analysis, design, software development and customization, project management and acceptance. Our expertise extends from being involved in the development of the fundamental standards that support utility communication and automation, through deployment and securing of those resources. EnerNex personnel were heavily involved in development of such standards and protocols as IEC 61850, IEC 60870-5 and DNp3. Our staff played a key role in the EPRI Utility Communication Architecture (UCA) project and the IntelliGrid Architecture effort.

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